Hurricane Hilary attained Category 4 status on Friday with sustained winds of 145 miles per hour as it moved through the Pacific on a path that will likely bring it to Southern California.
The National Hurricane Center classifies Hurricane Hilary as a “large and powerful” hurricane. It is located approximately 400 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
The NHC anticipates Hurricane Hilary to “still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of the Baja California peninsula on Saturday night.”
Hilary has been upgraded to a Category 3 (Major) hurricane as of 5 PM PDT. Hilary is expected to strengthen further tomorrow, before weakening on approach to Southern California. Expect very heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds in SoCal Sat-Mon.#CAwx pic.twitter.com/hat2gf2YhS
— NWS San Diego (@NWSSanDiego) August 18, 2023
AccuWeather meteorologist Scott Homan, the storm is expected to diminish as it approaches Southern California. Homan told USA TODAY, “However, the storm’s effects will be felt well before that, as a great deal of moisture is drawn northward into the storm system and then moves north into California.”
Hilary could land in the United States by Sunday afternoon as a tropical storm. On Saturday late afternoon, Hilary is expected to weaken to a Category 3 storm; by Sunday afternoon, it will have weakened to a tropical storm.
Hilary Forecast to Bring Heavy Rain, Flooding to Southern Californi
Homan stated that San Diego could see precipitation by Saturday evening, while Los Angeles could see drizzle around Sunday afternoon. Los Angeles, Anaheim, Santa Barbara, and San Diego could receive approximately 4 inches of precipitation, while Palm Springs and the Sierra Nevadas could receive between 4 and 8 inches.
Hilary might be the first tropical cyclone to land in California since 1939. Last year, Tropical Storm Kay brought torrential rain and flooding to Southern California without making landfall.
Samantha Connolly, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego, wrote in a Thursday morning forecast, “The combination of heavy rainfall, the possibility of flash flooding, and strong winds could make this a high-impact event for Southern California.”
How Much Rainfall Could Hurricane Hilary Bring?
The hurricane centre expects Hilary to deliver a risk of flash flooding and heavy rainfall to southern California, southern Nevada, and western Arizona. Here is the meteorological service’s California rainfall forecast in inches.
- Coast/Valleys: 2-2.5
- Mojave Desert: 3-5
- Mountains: 4-10, with up to 12 inches on the eastern mountain slopes
- Lower Deserts: 4-7