Ahmad Aljuryyed / tHE CUrrent Dr. Ken Goldstein, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin, speaks about the 2010 election cycle.
The Democratic Party may see their majority in Congress diminished in the upcoming midterm election, according to Dr. Ken Goldstein, a political consultant for several television news organizations and professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin. Dr. Goldstein visited the University of Missouri-St. Louis last Wednesday to give a presentation about what to expect in this year’s midterm elections. According to Goldstein, the Democrats, who currently enjoy a large majority in both houses of Congress, can expect to see losses in this year’s midterm elections somewhere between what the majority party experienced in the 1982 and 1994 elections.
“It’s clearly not going to be one of these years when one party wins a few, and the other party wins a few, and you sort of break even … If it’s a 1994, the democrats could lose the house… Or is it a year like 1982, where the democrats have fairly significant losses, but have a pretty big cushion and they are able to weather those losses,” Goldstein said.
The common outlier in midterm congressional elections is the absence of a presidential candidate. As a result, the balance of power in Congress is largely decided by elections fought out in individual districts all around the country.
“These are all going to be individual races decided by turnout, loyalty and independent votes. But national factors can have an effect,” Goldstein said.
These national factors would be health care reform and the economy, and Goldstein already sees them as emerging factors that will make an impact on voters when they go to the polls to vote this November.
“Things are shaping up for there to be some pretty strong national forces in this midterm election year,” Goldstein said.
Overall, Goldstein projected that the Democrats will lose approximately 30 seats in the House of Representatives and hang on to their majority in the Senate. He cited party identification, which has declined for democrats and increased for republicans as a factor along with an increase in independent voters, which according to Goldstein now make up four out of ten likely voters. In addition, recent special elections have shown that these independent voters are trending toward republican candidates.The presentation, which was sponsored by the Alumni Association and the UM-St. Louis political science department, was attended by students, alumni and professors.
Reaction to Goldstein’s presentation was mixed.
“I think it’s a great opportunity for the university, both the faculty and the students, to hear from someone like professor Goldstein, who is a national expert on campaigns and elections in the United States. It’s great to see events like this on campus,” David Kimball, professor of political science at UM-St. Louis, said.
Others in attendance, while pleased that such an acclaimed and experienced expert as Goldstein would visit campus to give a presentation, disagreed with his outlook or were disappointed that he did not provide a greater depth of information.
“I don’t think it’s going to be as ‘bad, doom and gloom’ as he said, but then again I’m always optimistic and I always hope for the best. I just don’t see it; I just don’t see [democrats] winning big. But it’s not going to be as bad as he said.” Brad Miller, junior, political science, said
“It was cool to have a star show up, but I sort of expected more … For someone who is on TV all the time, who seems to be on the inside track, he didn’t really know any more than what I hear on NPR,” Laura Wiedlocher, doctorial student in political science, said.
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